MAGIC ROUT CAVS TO ADVANCE TO NBA FINALS

Conspiracy theorists like to suggest that the NBA isn’t above manipulating results to get the outcomes they desire.  From the New York Knicks winning the first draft lottery to select Patrick Ewing, to a perceived ‘east coast bias’ during the Chicago Bulls’ championship runs to a suggestion that the NBA “wanted” a Kobe vs. LeBron matchup in the finals those inclined to paranoia have found a way to rationalize many results as being simply due to the league’s efforts to ‘call the shots’.  If, however, the league “wanted” a Kobe/LeBron final they clearly didn’t clue the Orlando Magic in on the ‘script’.  On Saturday night in Orlando, Dwight Howard badly outplayed LeBron James and the Magic routed the Cavs 103-90 to advance to the NBA finals for the first time since 1995.

The Magic easily covered as -2 home favorites, while the combined 193 points exceeded the closing total of 192’ by the slimmest possible margin.  The Cavs had opened the playoffs with 7 straight SU/ATS victories before pushing game 4 in the conference semifinals against Atlanta.  They then went on a serious downward spiral against the number, failing to cover in five of the six games of the Conference Finals.  Orlando, meanwhile, has now covered seven of their last eight games.  Five of the six Conference Finals games went OVER the total.

Orlando led by 5 after the first quarter before stretching that lead to 18 by halftime and was never seriously threatened after that.  Dwight Howard led the Magic with a monster ‘double/double’ consisting of 40 points and 14 rebounds.  Four of his teammates also scored in double figures including Rashard Lewis (18 points), reserve Mickael Pietrus (14 points), Rafer Alston (13 points) and Hedo Turkoglu (10 points).  The Cavs were paced by LeBron James, who had an ‘off night’ by his lofty standards and finished with 25 points, 7 rebounds and 7 assists.  Delonte West added 22 points, Mo Williams contributed 17 and Anderson Varejao rounded out the double digit scoring for Cleveland with 14 points.

The Magic will now travel west to the Staples Center to face LA Lakers in the first two games of the NBA Finals, beginning on Thursday night.  Los Angeles has been installed as a -250 favorite to win the NBA Championship, with the takeback on Orlando a healthy +210.  The Lakers are a -6 point favorite in game 1, with the total set at 205’.  After a pair of games in Los Angeles on Sunday the series will shift to Orlando beginning with Tuesday’s game three.

While the Lakers have dominated the straight up head to head W/L record on their home floor in recent years winning 10 of the last 12 meetings, the ATS results suggest the possibility of a very competitive series.  The Lakers hold a slight 6-5-1 ATS advantage in that span, with the Magic winning two of the last three SU and going 3-0 against the spread.  Eight of the twelve head to head meetings have gone UNDER the total (8 UNDER, 3 OVER, 1 push).   Orlando has some impressive numbers in their favor this season—they went a perfect 10-0 ATS against the Pacific Division during the regular season and are currently on a 21-9 ATS run.  They also went 22-8 SU and 21-9 ATS this year against the Western Conference.  Perhaps the most amazing statistic is a negative one for the Lakers—despite the legendary success that the franchise has had over the years they currently on a six game ATS losing skin in the NBA finals, part of a woeful 7-17 ATS run in the league championship series.