ARMED FORCES BOWL PICKS AND ANALYSIS: AIR FORCE VS. HOUSTON

Houston and Air Force battle in the Armed Forces Bowl in Ft. Worth, Texas for the second consecutive year.  The two teams made for a very entertaining contest last season, with Houston prevailing 34-28.  Oddly, the two teams met earlier in the 2008 season with Air Force coming out on top.  The Falcons finished the 2009 season with a 7-5 mark, while the Cougars were an impressive 10-3 on the year.  The college football betting pointspread for this game has Houston installed as a -5 favorite with the total set at 63.

From a tactical standpoint, it’s a very interesting matchup due to the statistical performance and contrasting styles of the competitors.  Houston is all about the pass, led by QB Case Keenum.  The Cougars led the nation in passing offense, compiling 5850 passing yards for the year—an average of 450 yards per game.  Keenum  also led the nation in touchdown passes with 43, after throwing for 44 scoring strikes one year ago.  In the two games against Air Force last season, Keenum threw for a total of 614 yards.

Air Force, meanwhile, is all about the run and their vaunted option offense.  The Falcons were the #4 rushing offense in college football with an average of 273.6 yards per game, with Jared Tew and Asher Clark each gaining more than 700 yards on the ground.  Tew rushed for 149 yards and two touchdowns in last year’s Armed Forces Bowl, helping the Falcons keep possession of the ball for over 38 minutes of the game.

Not only are the two offenses a complete contrast, but so are the defenses.  Air Force had the nation’s top ranked passing defense this year, while Houston struggled to stop the run ranking 112th in the country.  In reality, the defensive game isn’t as much of a mismatch as these numbers might suggest.  The Falcons benefit greatly from their schedule (playing the other service academies, which seldom pass the football) and the fact that the Mountain West Conference as a whole has become more rush oriented in recent years.

Ultimately, the Falcons will have problems matching up with the skill and speed of the Houston offense.  The Air Force passing defense ranking is largely an illusion, as evidenced by their performance against the one top notch aerial attack they faced all year—BYU and QB Max Hall torched the Falcons for 38 points and 377 passing yards.  On the other side of the ball, Air Force’s success in running the football is more of a function of their system rather than their personnel.  Having faced the Falcons’ option attack on two previous occasions, we look for Houston to do fairly well containing the run based on a greater familiarity with the tactics.

QB Keenum and the Houston offense should dictate this game, making the Cougars the play for college football betting purposes.  They should win and cover the pointspread easily.  Air Force will get enough points to make it OVER the total.

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