ARMY VS. NAVY COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREVIEW

One of the most venerable rivalries in college football, the annual Army vs. Navy game takes place on Saturday, December 12.  These teams have met 110 times and, in recent years at least, the Midshipmen have gotten the best of things.  Navy enters this year’s contest on a seven game winning streak in the series, with  a 6-1 ATS mark in those games.  Still, with Army a +14 favorite we think there’s good value on the Cadets for college football betting enthusiasts.

As we noted above, Navy has dominated head to head play of late both straight up and against the spread.   Since 1992, Navy holds a lopsided 13-4 ATS advantage.  In recent years, the disparity between the two teams has been even uglier, with Navy winning seven straight and covering six.  The last two years, Navy has outscored Army by a combined 72-3.  

Navy already has a bowl game locked up, as they’ll play Missouri in the Texas Bowl.  While the history of the rivalry itself provides enough motivation, Army also has a little added incentive.  They enter this game 5-6 SU and a win here will give them a berth in the 2009 EagleBank Bowl against Temple.  Army hasn’t been to a bowl game of any sort since the 1996 Independence Bowl, so clearly this would be quite an accomplishment for a rebuilding program.

Ultimately, our thinking is that the line is too high and based exclusively on Navy’s dominance in the series over the past few years.  The hiring of former Cal Poly head coach Rich Ellerson was a great move for Army, and he no doubt realizes that even a competitive effort in this matchup will ingratiate him significantly to his bosses and Army supporters.  There’s no indication that he’s on a ‘short leash’ at Army, but there’s also no reason that he wouldn’t want to bank a little ‘goodwill’ that could be valuable down the road.

The bowl picture makes this a strange dynamic for an Army/Navy game, giving the Middies something of a ‘lookahead spot’.  Army, conversely, has a lot to gain from not only a competitive effort but the outright win.  It’ll get Army their first bowl bid in 13 years and end the longest losing streak by either team in the history of the series.  That’s a lot to play for.

In terms of ‘x’s and o’s’, Navy is still the superior program but due to the situational factors and our respect for new coach Ellerson we look for the Cadets to keep this within the pointspread.

College football betting on Army vs. Navy at Sports-1