FCS, 1AA SEMIFINALS PREVIEW: APPALACHIAN STATE VS. MONTANA

The FCS/1AA playoffs are down to their ‘final four’ and there’s a good value position in Saturday’s semifinal contest between top ranked Montana and Appalachian State.  The other half of the 1AA/FCS final will be determined on Friday night as Villanova hosts William & Mary.  Montana has been installed as a +4 favorite in this contest.  That relatively narrow pointspread should underscore the respect the linesmakers have for App. State despite the Grizzlies 13-0 record.

For those of you unfamiliar with 1AA/FCS college football betting it’s important to keep in mind that Appalachian State is simply a powerhouse program at this level.  There was much mainstream sports media hysteria when the Mountaineers beat the University of Michigan outright a few years ago, but to those of us familiar with the program it wasn’t surprising.  App. State has won five straight Southern Conference football titles, and was 1AA/FCS national champions in 2005,2006 and 2007.  They were upset in the quarterfinals last year by Richmond (whom they, in turn, upset in this year’s quarterfinals last week) and have made a return to college football’s big game a focal point of their season.

More significantly perhaps, the Mountaineers have undoubtedly the most dynamic quarterback and all around offensive weapon in 1AA football.  Armanti Edwards brings many of the same upsides to this Appalachian State team that Tim Tebow does to Florida in that he’s a threat both running and passing.  Edwards also has the component of speed and athleticism that Tebow does not.  A college era Vince Young might be a better comparison.  The Mountaineers also have talent at the other skill positions, including running back and wide receiver.

The rap on the Mountaineers this season—and why they’re likely underdogs here—is that their defense is down from the suffocating units of recent years.  Statistically, there’s some truth to that as their #34 ranked scoring defense appears to be a poor match for Montana’s #1 ranked scoring offense.  Still, that ranking is somewhat misleading since they struggled early in the year but improved dramatically during the stretch run.  Also misleading is their 11-2 record, with one loss a 5 point verdict to FBS/1-A East Carolina.  

Montana is a very good team, but anyone whose followed sports understand the challenging psychological dynamic experienced by undefeated teams.  Appalachian State’s losses came early in the year, and resulted in a refocused effort the rest of the way.  They’re a program with extensive big game experience, and the best offensive weapon on the field in Armanti Edwards.  We look for them to win outright and advance to the FCS Championship game, making the Appalachian State +4 position a very good wagering value.

College football betting on 1AA/FCS playoff action between Appalachian State at Sports-1