HOLIDAY BOWL PICKS AND ANALYSIS: NEBRASKA VS. ARIZONA

It’ll be the Pac 10 vs. the Big 12 in the Holiday Bowl held at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego.  Arizona finished the season 8-4, while Nebraska finished 9-4.  The Cornhuskers were a second away from playing in a BCS bowl, only to lose to Texas in the Big 12 Championship Game on a last second field goal.  Nebraska had been installed as a -2’ point college football betting favorite with the total set at 40’.

Arizona might not have been a second away from playing in a BCS bowl, but did have a near miss against Pac 10 champion Oregon in mid November.  The Wildcats led late in the game before the Ducks tied the game and eventually won in double overtime.  Arizona may have a better ‘big play’ offense than Nebraska, which isn’t saying much since the Cornhusker offense ranked #89 nationally in offensive yardage and #80 in scoring offense.  The Wildcats are also very good defensively, ranking #21 in total defense.

The bad news for Arizona is that while their defense is very good, Nebraska’s is great.  The Cornhusker defense is led by Heisman finalist Ndamukong Suh at defensive tackle, and finished #2 in the nation in scoring defense and #9 in total defense.  Suh is the catalyst behind the stop unit, and one of the most dominant one man wrecking machines in college football.  Making matters even worse for Arizona is the fact that Huskers’ head coach Bo Pelini is one of the best defensive game planners in college football.

Ultimately, even though Arizona’s offense has an edge statistically we weren’t impressed with the quality of play in the Pac 10 this year.  They certainly haven’t faced a defense as stifling as this Nebraska team, nor have they faced the type of schemes that Pelini will have prepared.  Nebraska will likely struggle to move the ball and score points, but not to the degree that the Wildcats will against the formidable Cornhuskers’ stop unit.   Look for Nebraska win and cover the pointspread, but not by much.  Also look for these two solid defenses to send this game UNDER the total.

Play the Holiday Bowl Nebraska vs. Arizona at Sports-1.