HUMANITARIAN BOWL PICKS AND ANALYSIS: IDAHO VS. BOWLING GREEN

College football betting fans will welcome the University of Idaho back to postseason play as they make their first bowl appearance in eleven years, taking on Bowling Green in the Humanitarian Bowl.  This is essentially a home game for Idaho, with the contest taking place on the blue ‘Smurf Turf’ of Boise State University.  Obviously, Idaho will benefit from the motivation of making a successful return to bowl play as well as the home field, but will it be enough to overcome the more talented Falcons?  Current line on the game is ‘pick’em’ with the total set at 68.

Idaho finished 7-5 this season despite the fact that, frankly speaking, they’re not a very good team—particularly on offense.  The Vandals ranked #112 in scoring and #117 in pass efficiency.  They do have a decent running game, which they’ll use to control the ball and eat up the clock.  That will be a necessity, since they don’t have a very good passing defense either—Idaho ranked 117th in sacks and didn’t have an interception in their last six games.

Bowling Green’s passing attack is fairly good and that could be a problem for Idaho.  Quarterback Tyler Sheehan had a career year in his senior season, thanks in large part to wide receiver Freddie Barnes.  Barnes is one of the best in the country at the position, leading the nation in receptions and touchdowns and ranking #3 in receiving yards.  He’s five catches away from breaking the all time record for receptions in a season.

Were it just a matchup of offenses, Bowling Green would win in a blowout.  The problem for the Falcons is that their defense is as bad against the rush as Idaho’s is against the pass.  Bowling Green ranked 103rd in the nation against the run, with eight of their 12 opponents getting better than five yards per rush against them.  Vandals’ QB Nathan Enderle is healthy again, and he’s good enough at throwing downfield to prevent the Falcons from loading up ‘the box’ and trying to stuff the run.

Ultimately, there’s not a whole lot of wagering value with either side or total.  The forecast is for snowy weather, which could be slightly to the advantage of Idaho but won’t impact either team to a significant degree.  It may keep the total UNDER 68, since otherwise both teams will be able to move the ball and score on their opponent.  At the end of the day, we like Idaho to win by a narrow margin and in a ‘pick’em’ game that’ll be enough.

Bet the Humanitarian Bowl Idaho vs. Bowling Green at Sports-1.