LAS VEGAS BOWL PICKS AND ANALYSIS: BYU VS. OREGON STATE

For the fifth straight season, Brigham Young University makes the 5 ½ hour drive down Interstate 15 to Las Vegas for their postseason bowl appearance.  In theory, we get the idea since its close enough to Provo, Utah to get good fan support and Las Vegas has a large Mormon population.   At some point, however, the fact that Bronco Mendenhall has taken his team to the same bowl game every year in his tenure makes it less of a ‘special’ experience for his team.  Throw in three road games against UNLV at the Sam Boyd Stadium and it’s the 8th time in his coaching run they’ve played here.

BYU’s lack of speed in defense was most prominently exposed by Florida State who, even in a year where they performed far below their usual standards, was able to rip the Cougars 54-28 on their home field.  The problem here for BYU is that Oregon State may have the same speed and athleticism as the Seminoles, only with more talent and better coaching.  The BYU defense doesn’t have a lot of playmakers to begin with, and that doesn’t bode well against an Oregon State offense that only turned the ball over eight times all season.

Oregon State’s offense is not only good at taking care of the ball, but has a multitude of weapons to bring to bear against BYU including running backs Jacquizz and James Rodgers, and an underrated passing attack led by the efficient Sean Canfield at quarterback (who completed 70% of his passes this year for a school record).  The Beavers’ defense is underrated and although they struggled against quarterbacks who could move around in the pocket and throw the ball (most notably Oregon’s Jeremiah Masoli) won’t have that problem against the limited mobility of BYU signal caller Max Hall.

The Beavers have demonstrated a tendency to built momentum as the season progresses during Mike Riley’s tenure as head coach.  They’re 28-7 SU in games played after the first of October since he took over the program, and this year they were 6-2 SU/7-1 ATS in that timeframe losing outright to USC and Oregon.  Overall, Oregon State was a beefy 8-3 ATS and over the past three years has a highly profitable 24-12 mark against the college football pointspread. BYU, meanwhile, has been a pointspread money loser for college football betting enthusiasts—the Cougars were 5-7 ATS this year and a 14-22 ATS over the past three years.  In particular, they’ve struggled in the role of the underdog where they’re 1-5 ATS in their last six spots.

Bowl games have also been a problem for BYU in recent years, and they’ve covered only one of their five appearances in the Las Vegas Bowl.  This includes a very lethargic performance losing to Arizona last year, and on balance this BYU team isn’t as good as their predecessor.  On the other hand, Oregon State looks to be a more balanced team than Arizona last year and certainly has a more potent offense.  Mike Riley is also a perfect 5-0 straight up in bowl games.

Unlike many early bowl games, this looks to be one where the favorite enters with the greater focus and motivation.  BYU’s struggles in their recent bowl appearances seem to validate the possibility that these trips to Las Vegas are no longer a big deal to the Cougar program.  With the Beavers holding the talent edge in almost every phase of the game, they should win and easily cover the small pointspread.  No real interest in the total, but playing Oregon State -2 could be one of the better sports betting investments of the bowl season.

Bet the Las Vegas Bowl BYU vs. Oregon State at Sports-1.