MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL PICKS AND ANALYSIS: PITTSBURGH VS. NORTH CAROLINA

This game is something of a ‘letdown’ spot for both teams, as each was on the verge of a higher profile bowl appearance in their final game.  Pittsburgh blew a 21 point lead against visiting Cincinnati in their final game, losing 45-44 and in the process costing the Panthers the Big East championship and the resulting BCS bowl spot.  North Carolina also blew a double digit lead in their final game against rival NC State, eventually falling 28-27 to the Wolfpack.  This dynamic makes for a tricky handicapping situation for college football betting enthusiasts as the two teams meet at the Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina for the Meineke Car Care Bowl.  #17 ranked Pittsburgh is a -2’ point favorite with the total set at 44’.

North Carolina’s defense ranked among the nation’s best this season.  The Tar Heels were ranked 6th in total defense, 9th against the run and 15th in passing defense.  The problem with this team in 2009 was the offense, which struggled to find some sort of rhythm all year.  In particular, the North Carolina passing game struggled after losing three wide receivers to the NFL draft and the Tar Heels simply didn’t have the talent on hand to replace them.  As a result, North Carolina finished 107th in total offense and 97th in passing efficiency.  North Carolina QB T.J. Yates was the ACC’s #10 rated passer, meaning that he wasn’t exactly on the top of his game either.

Pittsburgh’s defense might not have the statistical ranking that North Carolina does, but they’re a very solid unit in their own right.  The Panthers’ rank #26 nationally in total defense but possesses an aggressive defensive line that led the nation in sacks with 45.  This could make life even more difficult for an already sputtering Tar Heel’s offense.
 
The Panthers, meanwhile, have a decided edge on the offensive side of the ball with the country’s #16 ranked scoring offense.  The Pitt attack is led by Big East player of the year Dion Lewis who was the NCAA’s third ranked running back in yards per game (136.7) and scored 17 touchdowns.  The Panthers also have the more competent quarterback in senior Bill Stull, who was named the Big East’s all conference signal caller.
 
While the Tar Heels' defense has the talent to take over the game and shut down the Pitt offense, we’re thinking that won’t be the case.  This is the second straight trip to nearby Charlotte for North Carolina and is something of a sign that the team made no progress whatsoever this year and at the very least isn’t much of a ‘reward’ trip for the Tar Heel players.  The biggest concern with North Carolina is their inconsistency on both sides of the ball, particularly on offense.  Pittsburgh features a more balanced, efficient and consistent team.

Can’t do anything with the total due to the inconsistency of the North Carolina offense, but we’ll gladly lay less than a field goal with a well coached and well rounded Pitt Panther team looking to win 10 games in a season for the first time since the Dan Marino era in 1981.

Bet the Meineke Car Care Bowl Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina at Sports-1