NEW ORLEANS BOWL PICKS AND ANALYSIS: SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VS. MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE

Another matchup between a ‘bigger name’ program and a lesser known school is on tap for the New Orleans Bowl.  Southern Mississippi has played in this bowl on several occasions in the past few years and, in fact, has never lost a bowl game held in the Louisiana Superdome.  They’ll head into this game with a 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS record in the New Orleans Bowl, which has become an almost annual tradition for the school due in large part to the close proximity to their campus and the fan support they bring.  Though this is something of a ‘geographical rivalry’, Southern Mississippi and MTSU have never played each other making this something of a blank slate for college football betting enthusiasts.  Southern Miss is a -4 point favorite with the total set at 58’.

In some ways, the teams are mirror images of each other.  Both teams have potent offenses and rank in the upper echelons of the nation in scoring offense.  Southern Miss has the 19th ranked scoring offense nationally, while Middle Tennessee State has the 29th ranked offense.  Both teams are also very well balanced offensively, and able to move the ball and score on the ground or through the air.   They’re also very similar in terms of their defensive capabilities.  Both have serviceable stop units though clearly both are teams that seek to outscore their opponents and win using the ‘best defense is a good offense’ philosophy.

In contrast to many ‘early’ bowl games this is, in our estimation, a spot where the underdog is ‘overvalued’ in relation to the college football pointspread. Middle Tennessee State was an ATS darling during the regular season.  They finished with a 9-3 mark against the number, including a 6-0 run to finish the season during which they obliterated the pointspread by more than 77 total points.  This may have resulted in an ‘overcompensation’ by linesmakers who had difficulty pricing MTSU properly during their rampage against Sun Belt conference bottom feeders.  Southern Mississippi, on the other hand, was a fairly pedestrian ATS team finishing 6-5 overall and 4-4 as a favorite.

This game should see a lot of scoring as both teams should be able to move the ball and put points on the board against the opposing defense.  At the end of the day, however, Southern Mississippi has the superior talent and this venue is obviously one they’re comfortable playing in.  MTSU will score some points, but we see the Golden Eagles winning and covering this number fairly easily.  For that reason, our recommendations are Southern Mississippi -4 and the OVER 58’.

Bet the New Orleans Bowl: Southern Mississippi vs. Middle Tennessee State at Sports-1