POINSETTIA BOWL PICKS AND ANALYSIS: UTAH VS. CALIFORNIA

It’s amazing that in this era of 24 hour a day sports coverage and myriad statistical resources available via the Internet that a team can go through the entire regular season and still be vastly overrated.  Yet that is the case in this bowl game, which pits style and flash versus substance and competence as the University of California plays the University of Utah at San Diego’s Qualcomm Stadium.  The result is arguably one of the strongest college football betting plays of the early bowl games.  California has been installed as a -3’ point favorite with the total set at 52’.

Jeff Tedford’s California Golden Bears have been overrated all season.  They’ve never been to a BCS bowl game during his tenure and didn’t have exceptional talent but somehow they were considered a top ten team by many preseason pollsters and pundits.  Their early season blowout losses to Oregon and USC dispelled those notions, but nevertheless they continued to be overrated by college football pointspread players.  After covering their first three games against overmatched non-conference opponents they went 3-6 ATS the rest of the way.

The University of Utah wasn’t a pointspread moneymaker this year either, though it was an entirely different dynamic.  The Utes were 5-7 against the spread, but suffered more from public perception based on last season’s offensive juggernaut.  That resulted in big chalk prices in a number of games, and this year’s Utah squad simply didn’t have the firepower to cover big margins.  While this year’s team might not be as dynamic on offense, they may have better tackling, fundamentals and overall toughness.
 
Most people remember nothing about California’s season other than the scary highlight reel injury suffered by star running back Jahvid Best against Oregon State.  Best elevated high over a Beavers’ defender to score a touchdown, flipped in mid air and came down hard on his head.  Fortunately, he only suffered a severe concussion on a play that looked at the time like it could have caused permanent spinal injury.  Best hasn’t played since and will miss this game as well.

Overall, Utah has the much better defense and the much more reliable offense.  They don’t have as much ‘big play’ weapons as do the Bears, but they are a team that can control tempo and make their opponents play at “their” style and pace.  They’re also very familiar with the Cal offense, as Bears’ coordinator Andy Ludwig had the same role at Utah for the previous four seasons.  And for all of the hype surrounding Bears’ head coach Tedford we’ll even give the coaching edge to Utah’s Kyle Whittingham who may be the most underrated coach in college football.

So that leaves the question “why is California favored by a field goal plus?”  Our best guess is that it’s based on the public perception that the Pac 10 is superior top to bottom than the Mountain West.  Another factor may be the casual fan’s preference for an exciting, potentially explosive offense against a fundamentally sound methodical unit.  For our purposes, it doesn’t really matter.  Utah is 8-0 straight up in bowl games during the past decade and going back to 1992 is on a 9-3 SU/ATS bowl run.  They’ll win outright here, and playing Utah at +3’ is a great wagering value.

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