ROSE BOWL PICKS AND ANALYSIS: OREGON VS. OHIO STATE

The Rose Bowl this season matches up a couple of teams that overcame early season adversity to play their best football down the stretch.  Oregon lost its opening game to Boise State, and then went 10-1 the rest of the way winning their first Pac 10 title since 2001.  Ohio State overcame an early season loss to USC and a mid October setback to Purdue en route to their fifth straight BCS bowl appearance.  College football betting lines have installed Oregon as a -4 favorite with the total set at 40’.

After their loss to Boise State, the Ducks went on a tear for the rest of the season finishing with a 4-0 mark against ranked opponents.  They first gave notice that they were a pretty good football team by decimating then #6 California 42-3 and followed that up with a 47-20 rout of then #4 USC.  The claimed the Pac 10 title with a victory over their arch rival Oregon State in the annual ‘Civil War’ game.  Oregon lost their star running back LeGarrette Blount to a year long suspension after he slugged a Boise State player, but LaMichael James stepped into his spot and performed admirably.  The redshirt freshman finished with 1476 yards and 14 touchdowns.

While Oregon has more big play threats on offense, Ohio State is a very formidable side in their own right.  Led by quarterback Terrelle Pryor, who is a threat both passing and running.  The Buckeyes averaged 29.3 points per game and scored 30+ seven times.  Pryor amassed 1,828 yards, 16 touchdowns and 10 interceptions through the air, and rushed for a team-high 707 yards and seven more scores.

The difference in this game could very well be the Buckeyes’ defense. Ohio State  limited their opponents to 12.2 points and 262.5 total yards per game, and an average of 83.4 yards on the ground good for fifth in the nation. Ohio State is one of five FBS teams that did not allow a 100-yard individual rushing performance.

We’re generally down on the Pac 10 as a conference this bowl season, and this could be a very bad tactical matchup for the Oregon Ducks.  Oregon has one of the most explosive ‘big play’ offenses in the country, but Ohio State has the far superior defense.  The Buckeyes will also be better rested and better prepared than the Ducks, having last played on November 21 while Oregon played its season ending ‘Civil War’ rivalry tilt against Oregon State in early December.  Ducks were 0-3 ATS away from Autzen Stadium against bowl bound opponents.  Big emotional/motivational edge to Ohio State, who is looking to atone for back-to-back bowl disasters against LSU and Florida.  They may not blow out Oregon, but we like them to win outright and at this price that’s all they need to do.

Bet the Rose Bowl Oregon vs. Ohio State at Sports-1.