SUGAR BOWL PICKS AND ANALYSIS: CINCINNATI VS. FLORIDA

This matchup between Cincinnati and Florida at the New Orleans Superdome is full of plot twists and intrigue—and that’s just the coaches.  Florida is in the usual role—at least in the recent history of the program—of *not* playing for a BCS championship, having lost to Alabama in the SEC Championship game.  Cincinnati went a perfect 12-0 this season, but was passed up for the title game as well.  College football betting odds favor the Gators, who have been installed as -12’ favorites with the total set at 57’.

Now, let’s talk about the coaching intrigue starting with Cincinnati.  As the regular season drew to a close Bearcats head coach Brian Kelly began not-so-subtly lobbying for the vacant head coaching job at Notre Dame.   He was eventually offered and accepted the gig, breaking the news to his team immediately after the Cincinnati football banquet.  The Bearcats’ players were less than enthusiastic about his decision, with more than one player publicly commenting that Kelly ‘turned his back’ on the school.  Assistant Jeff Quinn was named interim head coach and will lead the Bearcats here.  Not that his status with the team is secure either, as Central Michigan’s Butch Jones has been named as Kelly’s permanent replacement and like most new coaches may opt to bring in many of his own assistants.

Florida’s coaching situation seemed secure, with Urban Meyer having no plans to go anywhere.  At least that was the case until the day after Christmas, when Meyer shocked the college football world by announcing that he was resigning from his job to focus on unspecified ‘health related concerns’.  Less than 24 hours later, he had a change of heart and ‘un-resigned’ saying instead that he’d take an ‘indefinite leave of absence’ but not step down as head coach.  Within the past 24 hours it has been learned that Meyer was rushed to a Gainesville area hospital on December 6, following the SEC Championship game.  Meyer’s wife Shelly called 911 after her husband complained of chest pains and a tingling sensation on his side.  He’s reportedly had chest pains in the past due to anxiety, but doesn’t have a history of heart trouble.  Meyer will coach this game, but afterwards will hand the reins over to offensive coordinator Steve Addazio for the foreseeable future.

In addition to the coaching subplots is yet another, as Florida’s team leader and quarterback will play his last college football game.  While analysts are unsure about his prospects as a NFL quarterback, there’s no doubt that he’ll go down as one of the best college football players in history.  His accomplishments during his time in Gainesville are mind boggling:  one Heisman Trophy, 2 National Championships, 56 rushing touchdowns, 85 passing touchdowns, 2,896 rushing yards and 8,803 passing yards.  Beyond his statistical accomplishments is the sort of leadership uncommon in any level of sports, let alone college football.  A devout Christian, Tebow is a rare commodity in this era of ‘me first’ athlete and is focused as much on serving his fellow man as he is winning football games.
 
While the hyper-competitive Tebow would love to have had another shot at a National Title to end his college football career there’s little doubt that he’ll have his team fired up to send him off a winner.  He’ll have to carry even more of Florida’s offensive load than usual as running back/return specialist Brandon James will miss the Sugar Bowl following foot surgery.  James led the Gators with 1,324 yards with over 1,000 coming on kickoff and punt returns.
 
Cincinnati boasts a potent passing attack as well, led by quarterback Tony Pike.  The Bearcats led the nation in passing efficiency and sixth in total offense.  Mardy Gilyard is Pike’s big play receiver, and is as good as anyone in college football at the position.  One rap on the Cincinnati offense is that it is too one dimensional, and to be sure the running game is nowhere near as potent as the Bearcats’ aerial assault.

Looking at this game in terms of each team’s on-field attributes, however, there’s a good case to be made that Cincinnati is exceptional in one phase of the game but that Florida is the much better rounded team.   Even without James in the lineup, the Gators’ running game is superior based on Tebow’s abilities alone.  On the defensive side of the ball, there’s no comparison whatsoever with Florida’s defense actually outperforming their vaunted offense during the past two seasons.  This year, the Gators’ stop unit ranked third against the pass and fourth in total offense.  While they definitely didn’t face such an overwhelming passing attack as Cincinnati’s during SEC play, they’re very sound against the pass and have more physicality and better team speed.

Ultimately, this contest will come down to the intangibles brought about by the coaching backstory.  One fundamental question is how Cincinnati will respond to Kelly’s perceived snub of the team—will they come out unfocused and disorganized, or will they play with a greater passion to ‘prove a point’ to their former coach?  On the Florida side of the ball, there are similar questions concerning the team’s reaction to Tebow’s departure and Meyer stepping away from the program at least temporarily.  Will the team suffer a ‘let down’ in a lower stakes bowl than they’re used to playing in, or will they focus on the task at hand?

From a sports betting perspective, the first response is that Cincinnati is a much better team than this pointspread suggests.  They’ve been very dangerous as an underdog in recent years, currently on a 7-1 ATS run when getting points.  On the other hand, Florida—despite being a prohibitive favorite nearly every time they take the field—has been a pointspread wrecking crew during the Tebow era.  They were only 6-6 ATS this year, but have an amazing 25-12 ATS record over the past three years and a 12-5 ATS mark against teams with winning records.  For that reason, we’ll back the team with the proven track record of success, better overall talent, a better defense and one of the best on-field leaders in the history of college football.  Look for Florida to win and cover the pointspread and in the process score enough to send the game OVER the total.

Bet the Sugar Bowl Florida vs. Cincinnati at Sports-1.