SUN BOWL PICKS AND ANALYSIS: STANFORD VS. OKLAHOMA

Stanford was one of the best stories of the college football season as the perennial doormat of the Pac 10 finished 8-4, beating conference powerhouses USC and Oregon in the process.  They’ll head to the Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas to face an Oklahoma team that had hopes of competing for a national championship before the season begun only to have their plans undone by injuries to QB Sam Bradford, among others.   Despite finishing 7-5, the Sooners are installed as -10 college football betting favorites in this game with the total set at 55.

Stanford is trying to cap their first winning season since 2001 with their first bowl appearance since that same year.  The Cardinal is led by Heisman Trophy runner up Toby Gerhart who emerged as one of the nation’s best running backs during his breakout 2009 season.  Gerhart rushed for 1,736 yards and 26 touchdowns, and was the driving force behind Stanford’s second place finish in the Pac 10.

Oklahoma was forced to rely on their defense following the season ending injury to Bradford and a subsequent drop off in offensive productivity and they responded in a big way.  The Sooners’ stop unit would eventually finish 7th nationally in total defense holding opponents to 273.5 yards per game.  Their rushing defense is also formidable, finishing #7 in that category with a stingy 88.6 yards per game allowed.  The Sooners may finally be ‘peaking’ as the year draws to a close—they played perhaps their best game of the season in their rivalry contest against Oklahoma State as they held their foes (ranked #11 at the time) to only 66 yards rushing in a 27-0 shutout win.

While we certainly respect the job Jim Harbaugh has done at Stanford, it still must be noted that the Pac 10 as a whole was down considerably in quality from recent years.  That was particularly true on the defensive side of the ball, and that is where Stanford did much of their damage in conference.  Nothing has prepared them to face a defense of this quality.

With a pointspread of this size the natural inclination for the sports betting handicapper is to look for an opportunity to play on the underdog.  Unfortunately in this matchup it’s hard to see that strategy being effective.  In many ways, this could be a repeat of the Nebraska/Arizona bowl matchup where a supposedly ‘productive’ Pac 10 offense was rendered ineffective by a superior defense.
 
Ultimately, the differences between the team defenses is what will decide this matchup.  Stanford won despite their defense allowing 32.3 PPG against bowl level opposition and they’re simply no match for the Sooners on that side of the ball.  Oklahoma should win and cover the pointspread, with their defensive tenacity shutting down the Cardinal offense and sending this game UNDER the total.

Bet the Sun Bowl Stanford vs. Oklahoma at Sports-1.