TEXAS BOWL PICKS AND ANALYSIS: NAVY VS. MISSOURI

The matchup between Navy and Missouri in the Texas Bowl is similar in many ways to the Armed Forces Bowl matchup between Houston and Air Force.  Like the Armed Forces Bowl, this game will feature a potent passing attack against an efficient option rushing game.  This is the first meeting between the two schools in 49 years—while it may not have any significance for college football betting purposes, Missouri took the victory over Navy in the 1961 Orange Bowl.  Missouri has been posted as a -6’ point sports betting favorite for this game with the total set at 51’.

Missouri started the season with high hopes for a more prestigious bowl game, opening the year 4-0.  They then stepped up in class and were trounced by Nebraska, Texas and Oklahoma State as part of a four losses in five games stretch.  That does give us some cause for concern for Missouri in the role of a sizable favorite, as they didn’t perform particularly well in their most meaningful games.  Eventually, the Tigers would recover down the stretch and finish at 8-4.

The Midshipmen enter the contest at 9-4 and looking to become the first 10 win Navy team since 2004.  Navy boasts a productive rushing attack led by option QB Ricky Dobbs.  Dobbs rushed for 1074 yards and set the NCAA single season rushing touchdown record for a quarterback with 24.  Navy has now appeared in seven straight bowl games, though they’ve lost the last four contests.

Neither defense is anything special, and that could determine the outcome of the game.  Statistically, Missouri’s numbers against the run are impressive as they held opponents to 96 yards per game good for 12th in the country against the run.  The problem is that is as much due to scheduling and matchups as any intrinsic ability, with the Tigers facing few run oriented teams in the pass happy Big 12.  In fact, their lack of preparation against a run based offense—and particularly a running QB of Dobbs’ skill—could be the single most salient component in handicapping this contest.

Navy didn’t face many top notch passing attacks either, though it didn’t have the same statistical benefit for them as they finished 50th in passing defense.  What the Midshipmen will likely try to do is use their running game to control the ball for long stretches of the game and keep it away from the Missouri offense.

All said and done, however, Navy is very much a live dog in this spot.  They pose a difficult matchup problem for the Tigers and have the sort of tactical plan that very much facilitates close games and underdog pointspread covers.  Missouri will likely find a way to win the game outright, but we have very little confidence at their ability to cover this pointspread.  A better play may be on the OVER, as both teams will be able to put points on the board against the opposing defense.

Bet the Texas Bowl Navy vs. Missouri at Sports-1.