UFC 107 PREVIEW: BJ PENN VS. DIEGO SANCHEZ

BJ Penn will defend his UFC lightweight title on Saturday night at UFC 107 in Memphis, Tennessee against Diego ‘The Nightmare’ Sanchez.  Penn is considered, along with DREAM champion Shinya Aoki, as one of the best in the world at the weight.  He’s a sizable favorite in this fight (-285) which reflects not only his intrinsic talents as a fighter but the perception among the wagering public that he’s almost unbeatable at the weight.

Penn’s record at lightweight goes a long way to support that conclusion.  He’s 14-5 overall but he’s only lost once at lightweight and that was back in 2002 when he dropped a decision to Jens Pulver when ‘Lil’ Evil’ was at the top of his game.  In his most recent UFC lightweight contests, he avenged his loss to Pulver and has stopped Joe Stevenson, Kenny Florian and Sean Sherk inside the distance.
 
Sanchez also has an impressive record at 21-2, with the only losses coming at welterweight to high level competition in Jon Fitch and Josh Koscheck (whom he faced with a then undiagnosed staph infection).  Sanchez has most recently defeated Stevenson and the double tough Clay Guida to earn the title shot.

Both men are extremely well rounded fighters, skilled in both standup and the ground game.  Penn is one of the best technical boxers in MMA, while Sanchez uses a more unorthodox Muay Thai inspired style is also very effective.  Penn is one of the best Brazilian Jiu Jitsu competitors at the weight and may have the edge in groundfighting and submissions, but Sanchez is very skilled in this area as well.

Sanchez does have a few areas in which he may have the edge.  Perhaps the biggest difficulty he’ll cause for the more methodical Penn is his relentless pace setting.  Sanchez excels at ‘pushing the tempo’ perhaps better than anyone in the sport and certainly more effectively than any of Penn’s recent opponents.  Sanchez nearly overwhelmed human ‘Energizer Bunny’ Clay Guida in the opening moments of their matchup before ‘The Carpenter’ responded to make a fight of it.

‘The Nightmare’ may also be the most intense competitor in the sport, to the point that many observers question his sanity.  An underdog of this size who legitimately believes he can win and will come to the ring in a borderline maniacal frame of mind is always a good investment.  Sanchez is a big adherent of self help guru Anthony Robbins so look for him to shout ‘YES’ to himself repeatedly as he makes his ring entrance.

Finally, there’s always a question about Penn’s seriousness in training and conditioning.   In the preparation for his blowout loss to welterweight king Georges St. Pierre, he famously took a vacation in the middle of training camp.  Penn’s genetics will never make him look as cut as Bobby Lashley, and he’s never had any problems with cardio late in the fight but Sanchez’s conditioning is on another level.  Don’t forget the old joke that ‘B.J. Penn trains by lifting weights a Quarter Pounder at a time’.

We concur that Penn is one of the best lightweights in the sport.  As a +225 underdog, however, Sanchez represents a solid wagering value.  Theoretical breakeven at that price is just a shade over 30%, and ‘The Nightmare’ has a much better shot than that.

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