FIESTA BOWL PICKS AND ANALYSIS: BOISE STATE VS. TCU

A matchup between undefeated teams Boise State and TCU is actually a rematch from last season’s Poinsettia Bowl.  While both teams got the BCS bowl bids they deserved, many observers would have preferred to have seen them matched against teams from traditional BCS conferences.  Instead, they’ll play each other again this year in Tempe, Arizona.  TCU is a -7’ point college football betting favorite with the total set at 53.

Boise State opened the year with a victory over eventual Pac 10 champions Oregon and was never really tested again.  QB Kellen Moore finished the season as the country’s top rated passer.  Moore also threw 39 TD passes good for #2 in the nation and was only intercepted three times and sacked five times.  He should have his top receiver, Austin Pettis, for this game.  Pettis suffered a lower leg fracture late in the season but has been upgraded to ‘probable’ for the Fiesta Bowl.  The Broncos are considerably better balanced than they have been in the past and boast a solid running game led by Jeremy Avery (1,331 yards) and Doug Martin (723 yards).

TCU’s offense is similarly well balanced and may be more potent, ranked #4 nationally to Boise’s #8 in total offense.  The Horned Frogs’ are led by quarterback Andy Dalton, who threw for 2,484 yards with 22 touchdowns and five interceptions this season.  Additionally, TCU’s rushing attack ranked fifth nationally with 265.5 yards per game.  The Horned Frogs won their games in more dominant fashion than the Broncos, with each of their last seven victories coming by 27+ points.

Defensively, TCU also has a statistical edge as they’re ranked #1 nationally in yardage allowed with 233.3 yards per game.  They also have the confidence of having held Boise to just 250 yards in last year’s 17-16 Poinsettia Bowl victory.  The Broncos are a very potent force, however, and they lead the country in scoring offense with 44.2 points per game.  TCU was ranked #4 in scoring offense, with 40.7 PPG.

While the pointspread accurately reflects TCU’s dominance this season and the defensive edge they hold over the Broncos, there is some concern about the mindset of these teams heading into the game.  TCU was on the cusp of playing for the National Championship until Texas’ last second field goal in the Big 12 Championship game salvaged their undefeated season.  Some of the TCU players have expressed disappointment that they’re playing the Broncos for the second straight season.  Boise State, meanwhile, has embraced the opportunity to prove that they belong in the upper echelon of college football and are anxious to avenge last year’s bowl loss to the Horned Frogs.

For that reason, we look for a closely contested game with Boise State in it throughout and the outright upset a possibility.  They’re definitely the value side as a +7’ underdog, and we look for the Broncos defense to come up big and keep the final score UNDER the posted total.

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