MMA BETTING PICKS AND ANALYSIS: UFC FIGHT NIGHT DIAZ VS. MAYNARD

The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is back in action on Monday night with ‘UFC Fight Night 20’ taking place at the Patriot Center on the campus of George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia.  The Washington, DC suburb will be the site of the UFC’s first ever trip to Virginia and headlining the card is an interesting matchup between lightweights Nate Diaz and Gray Maynard.  Maynard is a -305 favorite, with takeback on Diaz +245.

To make money over the long haul in MMA betting you’ve got to specialize in underdogs.  The sport is simply too unpredictable and all but the top fighters have too much parity between them to focus on favorites.   That is especially true when it comes to large favorites since, with the exception of the best of the best like Fedor or Anderson Silva, it’s very rare that a favorite of more than -200 offers ‘true odds’ to justify the high breakeven percentage of such a high moneyline price.  The main event at UFC Fight Night 20 between Nate Diaz and Gray Maynard is a perfect example of this reality.

At the age of 30, Gray Maynard is one of the best wrestlers in the UFC’s lightweight division.  He had an impressive amateur wrestling career at Michigan State University before becoming a professional MMA fighter.  In 9 professional fights, Maynard has a record of 8-0-1.  The no contest came about in a fight against Rob Emerson, where Maynard slammed his opponent to the canvas.  Emerson immediately tapped out, but Maynard was knocked out cold by the force of his own slam.  

Nate Diaz is the younger brother of Strikeforce fighter Nick Diaz.  While 24 year old Nate is a little more easy going than his notoriously tight wound older brother, he’s got the same ‘chip on his shoulder’ from a rough upbringing in Stockton, CA.  He may not have the solid standup skills as his brother, but Nate is also a Caesar Gracie Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt and has outstanding submission skills.
 
Though this is the first ‘official’ meeting between the two fighters, both were cast members on season 5 of the UFC reality show ‘The Ultimate Fighter’.  During the competition, Diaz beat Maynard via guillotine choke and would go on to become season five champion.  Diaz has lost twice in his UFC career, both by decision in very competitive fights to superior wrestlers Joe Stevenson and Clay Guida.
 
Maynard may be more physically powerful than Diaz and he is definitely a top notch wrestler.  That notwithstanding, Diaz has world class BJJ and submission skills plus has the psychological edge of having submitted Maynard during their run on ‘The Ultimate Fighter’.  This fight is much closer than the betting odds would suggest, and there’s no justification whatsoever for making Maynard a 3 to 1 favorite.  In a matchup that literally could go either way, betting Nate Diaz +245 is an exceptional value.

Bet UFC Ultimate Fight Night Nate Diaz vs. Gray Maynard at Sports-1.