NFL PLAYOFFS PICKS AND ANALYSIS: ARIZONA CARDINALS VS. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

It should be offensive fireworks aplenty as the Arizona Cardinals head to the Superdome for a Saturday afternoon meeting with the New Orleans Saints.  Arizona advanced to this matchup by defeating Green Bay 51-45 in overtime—the highest scoring playoff game in NFL history.  New Orleans finished 13-3 this year and earned a first round bye.  The Saints led the league both in total offense and points per game, and boast the NFL’s best statistical QB in Drew Brees.  The NFL betting line has New Orleans posted as a -7 point home favorite with the total set at 57.

The biggest problem facing New Orleans could be a lack of momentum heading into the playoffs.  After opening the season 13-0, the Saints dropped their last three games to finish 13-3.  Of course they had no real motivation to win during the final two weeks like most playoff bound teams and limited their starters’ playing times.  New Orleans also went on a serious pointspread swoon late in the season, dropping their last five games against the number.  In fact, after a 6-0 start against the NFL pointspread they lost the money in eight of their final ten contests.

It’s a good thing the Saints can score points in bunches, as their defense finished 25th in the NFL in total defense and 20th in scoring defense.  There is some talent on the defensive side of the ball, and a lot of their statistical performance could stem from the fact that they simply don’t have the same type of pressure to make plays that opposing stop units do.  The Saints’ offense is by all metrics one of the best in recent NFL history.  They set a franchise record this year for points scored (510) and averaged 35.8 PPG in their first 13 contests.  They led the NFL in scoring differential at +169 points.

While Arizona had their ups and downs this season, in the past couple of years they’ve saved their best performances for the playoffs.  The Cardinals enter this game on a 5-0 ATS run during the past two years, and with their own offense hitting on all cylinders as evidenced by the 50+ points they dropped on Green Bay last weekend.  Kurt Warner is one of the best postseason quarterbacks in recent NFL history, and should be able to put points on the board against the Saints defense.

On the other hand, the Cardinals have their own defensive liabilities.  Their biggest weakness is in the secondary, which allowed Aaron Rodgers to shred it for 442 yards and four touchdowns.  One can only imagine what a rested Drew Brees is capable of doing to the Cardinals backline.  Despite an efficient performance by QB Warner last week where he posted more TD passes (5) than incomplete passes (4), the Cardinals have had trouble taking care of the football this year.  Arizona finished the regular season with 36 turnovers, 2nd most in the NFL.

We’re thinking that the Saints’ late swoon during the regular season was somewhat by design, at least in their last two games following the loss to the Dallas Cowboys. They didn't so much lose their intensity as they took their 'foot of the gas' to prepare for the postseason.  They’ll enter this contest rested and focused, while Arizona may come out somewhat flat following an emotionally draining overtime war against Green Bay.  In the NFL divisional playoff round, favorites of -7 to -9’ points are 24-18 ATS since 1975.  With wide receiver Anquan Boldin’s status still up in the air and Arizona’s porous secondary already having been exploited once this year this could be a blowout in the making.  We’ll look for the Saints to win and cover in a game that should go well over the posted total.

Bet the NFL playoffs Arizona Cardinals vs. New Orleans Saints at Sports-1.