NFL PLAYOFFS PICKS AND ANALYSIS: BALTIMORE RAVENS VS. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

The Baltimore Ravens advanced to the NFL divisional playoff round by shocking the New England Patriots last week, building a 24-0 first quarter lead before coasting to a 33-14 win.  They’ll now try to pull the upset against a very formidable opponent in NFL MVP Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts.  The Colts opened the season 14-0 before resting their starters in the last two games of the regular season to finish 14-2.  The NFL football betting line for this game has Indianapolis posted as a -6’ point home favorite with the total set at 43’.

Baltimore’s defense may be getting older, but they played solid football down the stretch.  They gave the Colts fits earlier this season when the two teams met in Baltimore, though Indianapolis eventually pulled out a 17-15 win.  The Colts’ have a very simple formula for success:  they win with defense, a power running game led by Ray Rice and attempt to limit the mistakes of their young QB Joe Flacco.  He was fortunate last week to get a quick lead to work with and played an efficient, accurate game.

Unfortunately, ‘efficient and accurate’ won’t be enough to beat the Colts and Manning.  Baltimore’s greatest liability on defense is their secondary, which they try to compensate for by putting pressure on the quarterback up front.  That might not work against the Colts, which has done an exceptional job of protecting their quarterback.  Manning has an abundance of weapons from which to choose including wide receiver Reggie Wayne and tight end Dallas Clark.  Although the Colts ranked last in the NFL in rushing, they’ve got solid running backs in Joseph Addai and Donald Brown.
 
There is a risk that the Colts will come out flat after two games in which they essentially made no effort to compete.  Indianapolis is 0-3 in the Manning era when playing after a first round bye.  That’s difficult to envision with a more experienced Manning and a veteran team.  On the other hand, Baltimore could have ‘left it all on the field’ at New England last weekend.  They’ll have a much more difficult time defending the Colts on the road and they simply don’t have the weapons to match Indianapolis on offense.

Indianapolis has done well in head to head matchups between the teams, winning 8 of the last 10 meetings SU and going 6-4 against the NFL pointspread.  If Manning and company can move the ball well, that puts a lot of pressure on the Colts’ Joe Flacco who has never thrown for more than 161 yards in four career playoff starts.  We look for Indianapolis to win and cover with relative ease with the final score barely topping the posted total.

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