NFL WILDCARD PLAYOFFS PICKS AND ANALYSIS: BALTIMORE RAVENS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

There’s been a lot of complaining among NFL fans and media about playoff bound teams resting their starters during the final week of the season, making the game essentially meaningless.  The New England Patriots didn’t take that route but may wish they had after wide receiver Wes Welker suffered a serious knee injury.  He’s out for the playoffs, and the Patriots will have to host the Baltimore Ravens without him.   The Ravens have their own injury problems, with All Pro safety Ed Reed likely to play in a limited role due to a variety of injuries.  The NFL betting odds on the game have the Patriots posted as a -3 point favorite with the total set at 43.

The Patriots are confident as a team heading into the postseason despite the absence of Welker and the fact that quarterback Tom Brady hasn’t been 100% for most of the year.  Then again, New England is just happy to have their quarterback in the lineup at all after playing the entire 2008 season without him.  Despite rib injuries and a broken finger on his right hand, Brady threw for 4,398 yards and 28 touchdowns this season.   He’s looked sharp for most of the year despite his layoff of last season and his physical ailments.  The other good news for New England is that they’ve got decent depth at wide receiver, and Julian Edelman should be able to step into Welker’s role.  Between Edelman and the always dangerous Randy Moss, the Patriots still have a number of playmakers at Brady’s disposal.

Baltimore had hoped to have Ed Reed back in the starting lineup by the playoffs, but both he and the team have accepted the fact that he’ll have to play a limited role.  The Ravens may not have the dominant defense of past years, but with Ray Lewis still setting the tone on that side of the ball they remain an aggressive and formidable adversary for any team.  Offensively, Baltimore depends on a two headed rushing attack led by Ray Rice and Willis McGahee.  Joe Flacco showed improvement in his second year at quarterback, but don’t expect to see him throwing downfield unless it’s absolutely necessary.

While we’re not sold on the Patriots’ ability to make a deep run into the playoffs we do like them to win and cover here.  Even a banged up Brady is far superior to Flacco, and he’ll be able to take advantage of the Ravens’ depleted secondary.  To be competitive here, the Ravens have to keep this a low scoring game and that’s not going to be easy to do.  Furthermore, they’ll have a hard time playing from behind with Flacco’s inexperience and limited receiving options.  And with all due respect to the Ravens’ John Harbaugh, who is by all accounts a decent coach, the Patriots still have a significant tactical edge.  Bill Belichick may be best remembered this season for his questionable fourth down call against Indianapolis, but he’s arguably the best coach in the game.
 
Though these teams have never met in the postseason, the Patriots have dominated the head to head matchups with a 5-0 mark (4-1 ATS).  We’re willing to lay a reasonable price with the Pats who were undefeated at 8-0 (5-3 ATS) on their home field.  The Ravens were only 2-6 ATS against teams with winning records this year, and we don’t think they’ve got the weapons to pull the upset in this spot.  New England should win and cover, with a slight lean on the total to the OVER.

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