NFL WILDCARD PLAYOFFS PICKS AND ANALYSIS: GREEN BAY PACKERS AT ARIZONA CARDINALS

As the 2009 NFL regular season neared the midway point, most observers were about to write off the Green Bay Packers.  After opening the season 4-2 they’d dropped two straight games including an embarrassing loss to the then winless Tampa Bay and stood at 4-4 midway through the year.  Since that point, they’ve done little wrong going 7-1 SU (7-0-1 ATS) the rest of the way to finish at 11-5.  Aaron Rodgers was the catalyst behind the dramatic reversal of form and is a legitimate MVP candidate.  Arizona, meanwhile, lost their opportunity for a first round bye before gametime last week and pulled their starters in a 33-7 loss to the same Packer team they’ll face today.  The NFL football betting line has this game as a ‘pick’em’ with the total set at 47’.

Aaron Rodgers did much this year to step out of the shadow of the man he replaced as the Packers’ starting quarterback—Brett Favre.  He amassed 4,434 yards passing, becoming the first player in NFL history to throw for 4,000+ yards in each of his first two seasons as a starter.  More importantly, he galvanized the team and got them headed in the right direction following the deflating loss to the hapless Bucs.  The Packers’ second half momentum is largely responsible for the line movement on this game.  Arizona opened as a -2’ home favorite but due to the number of bettors backing Green Bay the game is now a ‘pick’.

While Rodgers will be making his first postseason start, his Arizona counterpart Kurt Warner is one of the best postseason quarterbacks in recent NFL history.  Warner won a Superbowl with the St. Louis Rams back when they were ‘the greatest show on turf’ and has an impressive 8-3 postseason record.  He was at his best last season during the playoffs, throwing 11 touchdowns against only three interceptions as the Cardinals advanced to the Superbowl.  His favorite target, as always, is Pro Bowl wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald.  Fitzgerald caught 7 of Warner’s TD passes during last season’s playoffs and might be an even more important weapon if receiver Anquan Boldin is unable to play due to his sprained ankle.  He’s currently listed as a game time decision.

Despite the bettor sentiment toward Green Bay, we like the Cardinals to win this game.  They’re actually a better team this year than they were a year ago.  Rookie running back Beanie Wells has given them better offensive balance, and the defense is also much improved.  Most significantly, perhaps, is that they’ve become a very good home team during coach Ken Whisenhunt’s tenure.  They’re 18-8 SU in Tempe, and are currently on an 8-4 ATS run at home.  Overall, they’ve covered 14 of their last 21 games.
 
Here’s an interesting technical note about this game as a rematch of the teams’ week 17 matchup.  Prior to this season, there have been 9 games where teams that played in the final week of the regular season met in the wild card round.  The home team in this spot is 8-1 SU and 6-2-1 ATS.  It appears that the betting public is reading too much in to last week’s Green Bay victory, and we expect a much different result here.  Look for the Cardinals to win this game, and with two excellent quarterbacks and injuries to both defenses look for the game to go OVER the total.

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