NFL WILDCARD PLAYOFFS PICKS AND ANALYSIS: PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AT DALLAS COWBOYS

The Dallas Cowboys have become somewhat notorious in recent years for their late season swoons, but that wasn’t in evidence this year as they won their final three games to secure a playoff berth.  They’ll now host the Philadelphia Eagles who they beat 24-0 last Sunday in this same venue.  Philadelphia was in a position to secure a first round bye, but was outplayed in every phase of the game by the Cowboys.  They’ll now have to try to bounce back if they’re going to make a run in the NFL postseason.  The NFL football betting line on this game has Dallas installed as a -4 point home favorite with the total set at 45.

As one of the historically dominant teams in the National Football League, it’s hard to believe that it’s been 13 years since the Dallas Cowboys last won a playoff game.  After winning three Superbowl titles in the 1990’s, they’ve been winless in the postseason since 1996.  Since Dallas last won a playoff game, Philadelphia has made seven postseason appearances and advanced past the first round each time reaching the NFC Finals on five different occasions.  The Cowboys have also been through four different head coaches since 1999, when Andy Reid took over the job in Philadelphia.

Dallas’ December success this year was due to a solid performance from quarterback Tony Romo, who had 311 yards and two touchdowns against the Eagles last week, and an inspired performance from the Cowboys’ defense.  That no doubt helps the job security of head coach Wade Phillips—Phillips also serves as defensive coordinator for the team, the only coach in the NFL currently who fills both roles.  Dallas allowed a total of 37 points in their final four games including back-to-back shutouts to finish the season.

Despite the solid finish to the regular season by the Cowboys, we’re going to look to take the points with the visiting Eagles.  As noted above, Andy Reid has plenty of postseason experience and knows how to win in January.  That’s something that can’t be said for the current Cowboys’ roster and coaching staff, particularly Tony Romo who has struggled in the playoffs during his career.   By way of contrast, the Eagles have veteran Donovan McNabb under center and he’s always been a ‘big game’ quarterback.  He’s also got more weapons at his disposal than Romo, particularly with Brian Westbrook back in the lineup.

The situational pointspread data also favors the Eagles.  Philadelphia has been a solid road team in recent years, with a 5-3 ATS record this year as part of a 35-17 ATS record in their last 52 away games.  This has also been a series dominated by the road team (6-2 ATS last 8) and by the underdog (8-3 ATS last 11).  We look for the Eagles to find a way to win a hard fought game, and at this price that’s all we need them to do.  We expect both teams to put enough points on the board to give a slight lean to the OVER as well.

Bet the NFL Wildcard Playoffs Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys at Sports-1.