SUPERBOWL PICKS AND ANALYSIS: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS VS. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

If your sports betting experience dates back more than a decade you no doubt remember when NFL pointspread favorites dominated the Superbowl seemingly every year.  Through 1985, favorites were 12-6 against the spread and by 1995 that disparity had grown to 19-9 ATS.  In the past decade or so, underdogs have made a comeback going 8-4 against the spread.  That leaves the pointspread tally to date at 23-17-2 with no official line on Superbowl 1.
 
Another rare occurrence historically has also happened with greater frequency in recent years.  Before 1990 only two teams had won the Superbowl outright and not covered the pointspread.  Since then, there have been six Superbowls where the underdog covered the spread despite losing outright.  In the past decade it’s become commonplace, as 4 of the last 8 Superbowls have been covered by the losing team including last year’s game.
 
A byproduct of the underdog resurgence is a greater equilibrium in the Superbowl pointspread.  By 1995, the success of the favorite and the common knowledge of their historical dominance—even by the general public—had resulted in a good deal of pointspread ‘inflation’.  That year the San Francisco 49ers were 18’ point favorites over the San Diego Chargers—the highest chalk price in Superbowl history.  Since then, Superbowl pointspreads have returned to some semblance of normalcy, thanks to a better performance by underdogs and due to the perception of the wagering public that they have a realistic chance of bringing home the money even if they don’t win outright.

The Superbowl pointspread between the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints opened with Indy a reasonable -3’ point favorite and has since been bet up to -5’.   The move isn’t exactly surprising, as early money frequently comes in on the favorite with takeback on the underdog coming closer to gametime.  In our view, the Colts are the right side in this game and the price is reasonable enough to justify a play.

All due respect to the Saints offense and drew Brees—they led the NFL in scoring and yardage, after all.   The problem is that all of the relevant matchups here favor Indianapolis.  For all of Brees’ considerable talent, he doesn’t have the experience, efficiency or dependability of Peyton Manning.   Manning is simply a cut above anyone else in the league at the position and ranks favorably among the all time best quarterbacks in NFL history.  He’s certainly among the smartest quarterbacks to every play the game.

The Saints’ defense—and particularly their secondary—are merely adequate.  New Orleans ranked 25th in total defense and their secondary is especially suspect.  That won’t get it done against Manning and especially with Reggie Wayne among his many weapons.  Indianapolis statistically doesn’t have a great rushing game, but Joseph Addai and Donald Brown are both serviceable backs who won’t do anything to hurt the team.

New Orleans’ defense is essentially a ‘finesse’ defense that relies on pressure blitzes to force turnovers and bad decisions.  While that might have worked against “The Gunslinger”, Bret Favre, it’s the worst possible matchup for the Saints’ stop unit to try that tactic against Manning.  Manning is too smart, his release too quick and his turnovers too infrequent for blitzes to be effective.
 
On the other side of the ball, Indianapolis’ defense is very underrated here.  The Colts’ ranked 8th in scoring defense despite giving up a lot of points in their final two games when they rested their starters.  They’ve upgraded their size and strength in the interior, and still have a couple of the best pass rushers in the game in Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.  New Orleans’ Reggie Bush is becoming a solid NFL back, but the Colts did a good job shutting down the Jets top ranked rushing attack in the AFC Championship game.

Prior Superbowl experience may not be what it used to be.  At one point, the fact that New Orleans was playing in their first Superbowl would be enough to justify a play against them.  Free agency changed all of that, and NFL teams are built to win now.  Still, the postseason experience disparity between Manning and Brees is significant and could be crucial.  This will be Manning’s 18th playoff game with a Superbowl victory under his belt, while this will be Brees’ fourth with a record of 1-2 in his previous three.

SIDE:

The Colts are an efficient and experienced team that has decent balance on both sides of the ball.  They don’t get rattled when things go against them, they’ve been here before and they’ve got one of the best quarterbacks in the history of the NFL at the helm.  They’ve got the more efficient offense and the better defense.  They may not blow out the Saints, but we expect a 10 to 14 point Colts victory which will easily cover the pointspread.

TOTAL:

The total is a trickier proposition.  Certainly these are two first rate offenses led by a pair of elite quarterbacks and they’ll be able to put points on the board.  If any matchup justified such a high total—and at 57 it’s the biggest Superbowl over/under ever—it’s this one.  On the other hand, the recent trend is to the UNDER with five of the last six Superbowls failing to exceed the total.  Also keep in mind that these are two dome and turf teams that will be playing outdoors on the natural grass in Miami.  The weather this far out is obviously unpredictable, but preliminary forecasts call for rain leading up to game day which could make the grass even slower.  Since 1994, there have been six Superbowl totals of more than 50 and 5 of those games went UNDER.   With the variable of the weather an important consideration it’s tough to make a definitive call this far out but we’re leaning toward playing this UNDER the total.

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