ESKENDEREYA EXPECTED TO BE KENTUCKY DERBY FAVORITE

The 136th annual Kentucky Derby is several weeks away, but most horse racing pundits are of the opinion that Wood Memorial winner Eskendereya will enter the Churchill Downs starting gate on May 1st as the favorite.  There are a number of other solid horses expected to make ‘The Run For The Roses’, but none have been as impressive as Eskendereya in this spring’s Derby prep races.  In fact, many of the races that typically produce Derby winners have produced upsets and unlikely winners this year further solidifying Eskendereya as the top choice of horse race betting enthusiasts.

Eskendereya ran a disappointing 9th in the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita, but has been tremendous racing on natural dirt so far this year.  He is currently undefeated in his career on dirt, and first gained the attention of Kentucky Derby betting experts with an easy win the February’s Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream.  Eskendereya’s Beyer Speed Figure for that race was a lofty 106, and there was some concern that he’d run his best possible race too early in the calendar year.

He won over many of his critics with another spectacular win at Aqueduct’s Grade 1 Wood Memorial, and in the process outdid his earlier speed figure with a 109 Beyer.  Since none of the other Derby Prep races have produced anything approximating a dominating horse, his status as the favorite among those who will bet on the Kentucky Derby isn’t really surprising.

Despite Eskendereya’s strong showing this spring, there are racing experts who will be looking for value among the horses with higher Kentucky Derby odds.  There’s a prevailing opinion in some circles that his trainer, Todd Pletcher, has a tendency to produce horses that peak early resulting in strong prep race performances that don’t hold up on Derby day.
 
Others have pointed to Eskendereya’s competition in the Wood Memorial and The Fountain of Youth, suggesting that they were not only overmatched but created the perfect type of race in which he could dominate.  More specifically, without any serious speed horses in the field Eskendereya was able to casually track the leaders and run them down at will.  This won’t be possible in a Kentucky Derby that should be full of pace setting speedsters.

Of course these sorts of questions are what makes horse race betting such a fascinating pursuit and won’t be answered until the gate drops on May 1st at Churchill Downs.  When it does, we’ll quickly find out if Eskendereya is a different class of race horse or just another ‘false favorite’ who overperforms in preparation for the Kentucky Derby only to disappoint in the big race.