THE KENTUCKY DERBY’S ‘FORGOTEN FAVORITE’: LOOKING AT LUCKY

Barring some highly unusual circumstances, the Kentucky Derby favorite come post time will be the Todd Pletcher trained horse Eskendereya.  Eskendereya vaulted to the top of the three year old class with a dominating performance in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct where he posted a Beyer Speed Figure of 109.  Before Eskendereya’s ascendance to the top of the Derby field, most observers considered Looking At Lucky the horse to beat, and he’s still a very strong contender.

Looking At Lucky was the top two year old in the country, and following a strong second place run in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile became the very early favorite for the Kentucky Derby.   That was until Eskendereya’s blistering Wood Memorial performance combined with Looking At Lucky’s disappointing third place run at the G1 Santa Anita Derby.  Eskendereya vaulted ahead of the field in the minds of horse racing enthusiasts, and Looking At Lucky was considered to be one of the many Derby hopefuls that just didn’t perform in the high profile prep races.

There’s still a lot to like about Looking At Lucky.  He’s shown an impressive ability to contend in difficult circumstances, and his best performance was arguably his second place run at the Breeders Cup.  He came from off the pace after starting in a very difficult post position and very nearly ran down the leader for the victory.  He’s faced a very high level of opposition compared to many of his likely adversaries in the Kentucky Derby—he’s the only one of the potential Derby field to have entered more than one Grade 1 prep race.  Also worth considering is the training of three time Derby winner Bob Baffert, who is one of the best of getting a horse ready for a peak performance in the big race.

Critics of Looking At Lucky express concern about his unimpressive speed figures posted in his victories.  His three Grade 1 wins as a two year old resulted in Beyer Figures of 82, 89, and 83 which are somewhat disappointed for a horse of this class.  He did post a solid 98 in the Grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn earlier this year, but that still pales in comparison to the blistering Beyer Figures of 109 and 106 run by Eskendereya in his two prep races as a three year old.  Based on his pedigree there’s every reason to think that Looking At Lucky is capable of running a fast race, but he’s yet to prove it on the track.

Despite some question about how well Looking At Lucky will run on the dirt at Churchill Downs after racing exclusively on synthetics as a two year old, he could be a good value selection for Kentucky Derby betting enthusiasts.  He’s demonstrated impressive heart and competitive spirit, and if Eskendereya can’t maintain his fast pace for the full mile and a quarter, Looking At Lucky could very well come from off the pace and steal the victory.