PORTUGAL VS. BRAZIL HEADLINES FINAL DAY OF GROUP PLAY

One of the marquee matchups of the World Cup group stage is this clash between Brazil and Portugal, but with both teams assured of a place in the final 16 it could be more of an exhibition game than anything else.  Brazil struggled a bit with North Korea before finding their form against the Ivory Coast.  Portugal opened with a draw against the Ivory Coast, but exploded in their second game with a 7-0 drubbing of North Korea that has given them an almost insurmountable goal differential advantage.

Portugal’s offense is clearly feeling confident after ripping the North Korea defense for seven goals, but there are still questions about the team’s defense.  They didn’t concede a goal in the group stage to this point, but they also didn’t face a team that was able to press them offensively.  With Brazil almost certain to rest starters in this game, they may not get a valid test of their backline play until the knockout stage begins.

Brazil’s star midfielder Kaka will miss this game after a dubious red card booking against the Ivory Coast, but they would have likely held him out anyway given the situation.  There’s a good deal to suggest that only 3 or 4 of Brazil’s usual starters will see action against Portugal—their reserves are plenty talented, to be sure, but this might take away from some of the intensity that we could have otherwise expected in a clash between such natural rivals.  

Both teams know that they’re through to the next round, but neither know who they’ll face in the opening game of the knockout stage.  The winner will face the Group H runner up, with the Group G second place team playing the Group H winner.  With Spain, Chile and Switzerland all in the running for advancement there are too many possible scenarios at the moment to speculate on what the second round matchups will be.

With more of a motivation to produce a favorable result and facing a lineup of Brazil’s backups, a bet on Portugal to win could be a solid value.  A better wagering position is to play the game OVER the total—we’re looking for a lot of goals due to defensive substitutions and the offensive potency of both sides.  The game might not have particularly weighty implications due to the fact that both teams have clinched, but should be a fun shootout to watch.