MIAMI-OHIO FACES TOUGH TEST AGAINST FLORIDA

This isn’t exactly how a team that went 1-11 SU in 2009 wants to start the season.  Miami-Ohio tries to bounce back from one of the worst seasons in program history, and they couldn’t pick a bigger challenge to open the 2010 campaign—in Gainesville at ‘The Swamp’ against the University of Florida in the first game of the post Tim Tebow era.  The Gators opened a -30’ point home favorite and college football betting enthusiasts have pushed that line up to -35’ with the total set at 52’.

It’s hard to argue with the line movement in this game, and it could be even higher by game day.  The Gators have been a great pointspread team in recent years and Miami-OH is just can’t match the ridiculous amount of NFL level talent that Urban Meyer has to work with.  Tim Tebow is gone, but the Gators return an embarrassment of riches at the running back position that accounted for over 2,000 yards last season.  Taking over at starting quarterback is John Brantley, and the net result could be an offense even more formidable than in the Tebow era.  Brantley is a more prototypical NFL style quarterback with a stronger arm than his predecessor.  He isn’t the rushing threat that Tebow was but when your team is stacked four deep at running back that’s not a huge issue.
 
And here’s something that’s really bizarre—this game is a ‘lookahead spot’ for Miami-OH and second year coach Michael Haywood.  They’ve got a winnable MAC game at home against an Eastern Michigan team that went 0-12 SU last year on deck next week.  For a team that went 1-11 in 2009, any win is a big deal.  It took the Red Hawks 9 games to win their first last season, so if they were to open the season 1-1 that would be a monumental accomplishment.  And we mean no disrespect to the Miami-OH program when we say this, but Florida is simply on another level in terms of talent and competition.  They have no delusions that they’ll knock off the Gators, and they may use the opportunity to give playing time to reserves and keep their starters healthy and fresh for a game they can actually compete in.

Florida’s ATS numbers in the Urban Meyer era border on phenomenal considering that they’re not exactly a team that ‘sneaks up’ on opponents and they’ve been laying big numbers week after week for his entire tenure in Gainesville.  In the last three years, Florida has been favored every time they take the field yet have posted an 18-8 mark against the spread (69.2%).  Think they don’t bring the same intensity against a non-conference opponent?  Guess again-- Florida is currently on an 11-0 ATS run as double digit non-con favorites and on a 7-1 ATS run overall in non-conference games.  They’re even 3-1 ATS as favorites of 31 points or more.

The Gators can ‘name the score’ and probably will.  In their first lined game last season they beat Troy 56-6.  What’s frightening is that the offense may be even better this year, and Troy was a halfway decent team that finished 7-4 SU.  Florida is facing a team here that has won fewer games in the last four seasons than the Gators did in 2009 alone.  No other way to play this than Florida and the OVER.